Publication Date: May 24, 2018
The implications of the Time Warner / AT&T federal court ruling will be scrutinised by M&A practitioners and its result will likely lead to corporate action by Fox, Comcast, Disney and Sky. Comcast has recently made its presence felt in media consolidation – first, with its 25-Apr-18 definitive offer to purchase Sky, at a 16% premium to Fox’s offer; and second, with its 23-May-18 announcement that it is in advanced stages of preparing a superior all-cash counterbid for Fox assets, at a premium to Disney’s all-share offer. The 12-Jun-18 Time Warner / AT&T court decision will lead to forthcoming moves by the two key suitors, Comcast and Disney, which will inevitably present risks and opportunities at the targets, Fox and Sky. In this report, we examine the background of Fox / Comcast, the Murdoch’s ownership dilemma and realistic takeover prices for the Fox RemainCo assets. Assuming a bidding war ensues for Fox, we address the Fox vote, antitrust issues and how Sky fits into the suitors’ ambitions. Finally, we provide our view on the most likely outcome and trading strategies.
1. The Time-Warner / AT&T Catalyst 2. Pre- Fox / Comcast Bid: Background, a Murdoch Dilemma and Takeover Prices 3. Post- Fox / Comcast Bid: The Fox Vote, Antitrust and Preference Versus Sky 4. The Implications on Sky / Comcast; Another Competitive Situation? 5. Likely Outcomes and Trading Strategies
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