SABMiller / AB InBev

SABMiller / AB InBev: Proxy Adviser Risks



Publication Date: September 1, 2016


Contents (21 Pages):

1. Proxy Advisers and Their Influence on M&A Deals 2. ISS Considerations Suggesting a Recommendation to Vote ‘FOR’, because ISS: 2.1 Tends to side with management and is influenced by shareholder clients 2.2 Is ensured of no conflicts of interest, thus safeguarding minority shareholders 2.3 Compares multiples offered and takeover premiums versus precedent deals 2.4 Has recommended deals with light yet ‘reasonable premiums’ 2.5 Sides with ‘final’ offers, is aware of buyer limitations and repercussions of a failed deal 2.6 Is cognizant of any strategic alternatives and a ‘Bird in Hand’ 2.7 Rarely opposes deals with little shareholder opposition and a positive arb spread 2.8 May calculate that the revised offer is still reasonable and sufficiently compelling 3. ISS Considerations Suggesting a Recommendation to Vote ‘AGAINST’, because ISS: 3.1 Is in the midst of proving its independence in light of proposed US legislation 3.2 Bases its recommendations on what would be of interest to long-term shareholders 3.3 Has not been afraid to recommend against shareholders and against a 'final' offer 3.4 Has not been afraid to recommend against an already improved offer 3.5 Can recommend against an offer even if there is steep downside on a break 3.6 Considers the current state of play and ongoing ‘material beneficial changes’ 3.7 May recognise recent FX moves and assert that short-term downside is minimal 3.8 May conclude that, with an insufficient premium, the offer is not sufficiently compelling 4. Update: Timing, Probability of Completion and the Risk Arbitrage Spread


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Deal Timeline

SABMiller / AB InBev

End Date: October 4, 2016

October 2016

September 2016

August 2016

July 2016

June 2016

May 2016

April 2016

March 2016

February 2016

January 2016

December 2015

November 2015

Deal Announced: October 13, 2015
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